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James Turk & Chris Waltzek - November 12, 2015.

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Summary:

  • James Turk of GoldMoney.com returns to the program with less than sanguine comments on the domestic economy.
  • Half of 25 year olds in the US are living in their parent's homes, struggling to make ends meet.
  • The statistic is emblematic of the erosion of the economic affluence of the middle class.
  • The issue stems from lost purchasing power of the currency, resulting from profligate monetary expansion.
  • When income is adjusted for inflation and related expenses, most employees earn far less than medieval serfs.
  • The desperation of the situation is exacerbate by the off-shoring of tens of millions of high paying jobs, due to NAFTA and related policies.
  • The persistence of gold backwardation (current spot lower than future price) should not occur, as it presents an arbitrage situation.
  • Since 2000, gold has appreciated over 11% on average each year and held it's purchasing power much better than most competing asset classes.
  • The US dollar is lower, while stocks and bonds have hardly budged since that point, while gold has ascended at least four fold, $250 to over $1,000.

James Turk of GoldMoney.com returns to the program with less than sanguine comments on the domestic economy. Half of 25 year olds in the US are living in their parent's homes, struggling to make ends meet - the statistic is emblematic of the erosion of the economic affluence of the middle class. The issue stems from lost purchasing power of the currency, resulting from profligate monetary expansion. When income is adjusted for inflation and related expenses, most employees earn far less than medieval serfs, who typically kept half of their output / earnings. The desperation of the situation is exacerbate by the off-shoring of tens of millions of high paying jobs, due to NAFTA and related policies. In addition, persistent gold backwardation (current spot lower than future price) should not occur, as it presents an arbitrage situation where investors theoretically sell spot gold / buy future gold in tandem, pocketing the spread. Since 2000, gold has appreciated over 11% on average each year and held it's purchasing power much better than most competing asset classes. For instance, the US dollar is lower, while stocks and bonds have hardly budged since that point, while gold has ascended at least four fold, climbing from $250 to over $1,000.

John Williams & Chris Waltzek - November 11, 2015.

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Summary:

  • Economist John Williams of Shadowstats.com returns to the show.
  • The true underlying economic situation, hidden within the "official" economic data, is less than encouraging.
  • The typically cool-headed and collected economic-sleuth is unnerved by Fed policies.
  • His work indicates that the economy never recovered from that ominous period, resulting in the current stagnation.
  • Our guest echoes American economist Dr. Frank Knight who noted: economics is simple.
  • John Williams uncovers fingerprints of gold market manipulation / rigging, likely stemming from official sources.
  • His analysis indicates a US dollar endgame scenario of less than sanguine consequences.
  • The host suggests an alternative hypothesis: the PBoC is aggressively promoting China's Yuan currency to the IMF, as a global reserve currency alternative, as seen by the recent currency pegging to the Swiss Franc.
  • Therefore, dollar strength resulting from imminent US rate hikes in 2016 and dovish moves by the ECB, PBoC and the BOJ, are responsible for most of the 12 month dollar rally and resulting commodities weakness.
  • John Williams and the host agree that the perfect panacea for the typical investment portfolio remains PMs, the ideal insurance policy.

     

Admired by top analysts / investors, economist John Williams of Shadowstats.com returns to the show, armed with cutting edge analysis. John Williams reveals the true underlying economic situation, hidden within the "official" economic data, including the true intentions of Fed policymakers. The typically cool-headed and collected economic-sleuth is unnerved by Fed policies, noting that the financial system is at least as problematic as during the Great Recession, circa 2008. His work indicates that the economy never recovered from that ominous period, resulting in the current stagnation. Our guest echoes the sentiments of the American economist Dr. Frank Knight who noted: economics is simple, the trouble stems from the a small faction who gain by making the science of economics, so dismal. Our guest uncovers fingerprints of gold market manipulation / rigging, likely stemming from official sources. His analysis indicates a US dollar endgame scenario of less than sanguine consequences. The host suggests an alternative hypothesis: the PBoC is aggressively promoting China's Yuan currency to the IMF, as a global reserve currency alternative, as seen by the recent currency pegging to the Swiss Franc. In addition, after the EU lowered a key lending rate into negative territory, officials recently threatened to drop the rate even further if necessary. Therefore, dollar strength resulting from imminent US rate hikes in 2016 (see the links / graphs from the previous week) and dovish moves by the ECB, PBoC and the BOJ, are responsible for most of the 12 month dollar rally and resulting commodities weakness. John Williams and the host agree that the perfect panacea for the typical investment portfolio remains PMs, the ideal insurance policy.

 

 

Bob Hoye & Chris Waltzek - November 5, 2015.

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Recap.:

  • Chris welcomes back Bob Hoye, senior investment strategist of Institutional Advisors.

  • The discussion begins with the news from South America, that the Venezuelan government has plans to sell the national gold stockpile.

  • If implemented, the operation would undo the significant efforts of the late Hugo Chavez.

  • Global central banks are inadvertently supporting the PMs community - policymakers at the PBoC and EU announced new monetary stimulus plans.

  • The EU finance minister is considering a plan to lower the benchmark lending rate further into negative territory, an unprecedented event.

  • The Fed Chair shocked investors this week, noting that if domestic economic conditions continue to deteriorate, negative US lending rates could be helpful.
  • Some market watchers inferred from the speech that Fed officials might not raise rates in 2016.
  • The CME Group Fed Funds Futures contracts suggest that investors are now placing high odds that rates will increase sharply, to 1-2% or higher, as soon as next year.
  • Bob Hoye notes that Fed policymakers may not set rates, but actually follow the market trend in rates.
  • For instance, the 2 year T-Bill seems to lead Fed interest rate policy (Figure 1.2).
  • Our guest notes that the PMs market could be building a base, in advance of the next bull market.
  • He outlines his Christmas Bonus indicator, based on the Broker / Dealer index via the ETF (IAI).

 

Chris welcomes back Bob Hoye, senior investment strategist of Institutional Advisors - the discussion begins with the news from South America, that the Venezuelan government has plans to sell the national gold stockpile. If implemented, the operation would undo the significant efforts of the late Hugo Chavez, who was one of the first national leaders to successfully repatriate the national wealth. Nevertheless, global central banks are inadvertently supporting the PMs community - policymakers at the PBoC and EU announced new monetary stimulus plans, to encourage economic growth prospects. The EU finance minister is considering a plan to lower the benchmark lending rate further into negative territory, an unprecedented event. In similar fashion, Fed Chair, Dr. Yellon shocked investors this week, noting that if domestic economic conditions continue to deteriorate, negative US lending rates could be helpful. Some market watchers inferred from the speech that Fed officials might not raise rates in 2016. Nevertheless, the CME Group Fed Funds Futures contracts suggest that investors are now placing high odds that rates will increase sharply, to 1-2% or higher, as soon as next year. Bob Hoye notes that Fed policymakers may not set rates, but actually follow the market trend in rates. For instance, the 2 year T-Bill seems to lead Fed interest rate policy (Figure 1.2). Our guest notes that the PMs market could be building a base, in advance of the next bull market - he outlines his Christmas Bonus indicator, based on the Broker / Dealer index via the ETF (IAI).

 

Figure 1.1. CME Group - Fed Funds Futures Odds (2015-2016)

Note: Graphs courtesy of CME Group.

 

Figure 1.2. CME Group - Fed Funds Futures Odds (2015-2016)

 

Note: Graphs courtesy of Tyler Durden, Zero Hedge.

 

Goldsource Mines President, Yannis Tsitos & Chris Waltzek - Nov. 4, 2015.

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Recap:

  • President and Director of Goldsource Mines (GXS.V), Yannis Tsitos makes his show debut.
  • Peter Spina has chosen his firm as the top PMs stock opportunity of 2016.
  • With close to 30 years to perfect his work, President Tsitos knows how to turn a small mining company into a world-class operation.
  • The company vision includes expanding to a medium sized gold producer. The South American project shows great potential.
  • Many of the Guyana based gold deposits are located near the surface, making extraction profitable.
  • The only English speaking nation in S.A., Guyana is a pro-mining, former British colony, offering additional appeal to operations.
  • His management team boasts 250 years of experience, adding significant shareholder value.
  • First gold production by Christmas on their flagship property for merely $480 cash cost-$630 all in cost per ounce, merely half the spot price.
  • Goldsource has an affiliation with major producer and key shareholder (5%), IAMGOLD, adding strategic synergies.
  • Shareholders benefit from the coal property in Canada, with significant resources and exploration potential.

President and Director of Goldsource Mines, Yannis Tsitos makes his show debut. Peter Spina has chosen his firm as the top PMs stock opportunity of 2016. With close to 30 years to perfect his work, President Tsitos knows how to turn a small mining company into a world-class operation - the company vision includes expanding to a medium sized gold producer. The South American project shows great potential, as many of the Guyana based gold deposits are located near the surface, making extraction profitable. The only English speaking nation in S.A., Guyana is a pro-mining, former British colony, offering additional appeal to operations. His management team boasts 250 years of experience, adding significant shareholder value. The top company story includes first gold production by Christmas on their flagship property for merely $480 cash cost-$630 all in cost per ounce, merely half the spot price. Moreover, Goldsource has a affiliation with major producer and key shareholder (5%), IAMGOLD, adding strategic synergies. In addition, shareholders benefit from the coal property in Canada, with significant resources and exploration potential.

Charles Hughes Smith & Chris Waltzek - Oct. 30, 2015.

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Recap:

  • Chris welcomes back, Charles Hughes Smith, from the Of Two Minds blog.
  • The discussion includes the excessive risk posed to Americans from overpriced / overvalued housing.
  • Given that a house represents the chief source of upward mobility, and legacy to posterity, if another real estate crisis were to ensue, the financial repercussions would be far-reaching and intense.
  • In the last housing bubble Freddie Mac / Fannie Mae shouldered their responsibility for most of the easy loans.
  • However, the subsequent echo bubble is a direct result of easy FHA mortgages - over 90% of US loans are currently backed by US GSEs.
  • Risk is a favorite topic of our guest who notes the financial challenges facing the middle class today are far different than recent decades.
  • The Too Big To Fail concept is reaching unsustainable levels, ubiquitous throughout the culture, luring entire generations into a false sense of security.
  • Charles Hughes Smith praises entrepreneurs, facing extinction in the US following the recent economic recovery period, according to St. Louis Fed metrics (Figure 1.1.).

Chris welcomes back, Charles Hughes Smith, from the Of Two Minds blog. The discussion includes the excessive risk posed to Americans from overpriced / overvalued housing. Given that a house represents the chief source of upward mobility, and legacy to posterity, if another real estate crisis were to ensue, the financial repercussions would be far-reaching and intense. In the last housing bubble Freddie Mac / Fannie Mae shouldered their responsibility for most of the easy loans. However, following the 2007 housing crisis, the subsequent echo bubble is a direct result of easy FHA mortgages - over 90% of US loans are currently backed by US GSEs. Risk is a favorite topic of our guest who notes the financial challenges facing the middle class today are far different than recent decades - the Too Big To Fail concept is reaching unsustainable levels, ubiquitous throughout the culture and, luring entire generations into a false sense of security. Charles Hughes Smith praises entrepreneurs, a much maligned group, facing extinction in the US following the recent economic recovery period, according to St. Louis Fed metrics (Figure 1.1.).

Figure 1.1. Employment Level: Self-employed (2000-2015)

Note: Graph courtesy of stlouisefed.org.

Bill Murphy & Chris Waltzek - Oct. 28, 2015.

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Recap:

  • Chris welcomes back Bill Murphy from GATA.org who is in New Orleans with Chris Powell at an Investment Conference, amid a stealth precious metals rally.

  • Our guest is convinced that the a big opportunity for oversized profits exists in the silver coin market, due to supply constraints.

  • He's monitoring resistance levels in silver bullion at $18.50 for signs of a new uptrend.

  • Once that level is surpassed, the host concurs that a new bull market could erupt with little warning.

  • Fundamentals and technicals may be irrelevant, if the PTB exhaust their supply of bullion to suppress the price.

  • Not only does the PBoC have a nearly insatiable appetite for gold, but the stockpile is virtually empty, when compared to the US / EU.

  • Gold demand will remain robust for years as China's policymakers increase the national hoard to offset the currency-turmoil threat.

Chris welcomes back Bill Murphy from GATA.org who is in New Orleans with Chris Powell at an Investment Conference, amid a stealth precious metals rally. Our guest is convinced that the a big opportunity for oversized profits exists in the silver coin market, due to supply constraints. He's monitoring resistance levels in silver bullion at $18.50 for signs of a new uptrend. Once that level is surpassed, the host concurs that a new bull market could erupt with little warning. At the end of the day, fundamentals and technicals may be irrelevant, if the PTB exhaust their supply of bullion to suppress the price. Meanwhile, not only does the PBoC have a nearly insatiable appetite for gold, but the stockpile is virtually empty, when compared to the US / EU. Gold demand will remain robust for years as China's policymakers increase the national hoard to offset the currency-turmoil threat.

 

John Embry & Chris Waltzek - October 27, 2015.

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Abstract:

  • On the heels of a multi-week PMs sector rally, John Embry, Chief Investment Strategist at Sprott Asset Management, returns to the program.
  • His work indicates much higher levels ahead for the sector, once the underlying bullion regains its footing.
  • Our guest doubts the Fed or their central banking colleagues will raise rates for years to come, to the delight of gold aficionados.
  • Monetary policymakers are constrained by staggering global debt levels - leading US money center banks hold over $200 trillion in notional derivatives - financial weapons of mass destruction (F-WMD).
  • As a result, even the hint of higher nominal rates could trigger a worldwide debt implosion of epic magnitude.
  • The issue appears to stem from a failure by officials to recognize the global scope of inflation.
  • According to the School of Austrian Economics, once national debt reaches critical mass, officials must either stop the printing presses or hyperinflation on a worldwide scale is imminent.
  • The host firmly agrees with John Embry and his business partner Eric Sprott who insist that silver represents the most undervalued asset class.
  • Their analysis suggests a 10 fold increase in silver is likely, which could represent a low-ball estimate if the global economy unravels.
  • Lower silver supply could add to already explosive demand, resulting in a massive shortage.
  • The end result could be a price surge of Herculean proportions.
  • The duo concur - the ideal investing mindset requires a paradigm shift, from capital appreciation, to wealth preservation.

On the heels of a multi-week PMs sector rally, John Embry, Chief Investment Strategist at Sprott Asset Management, returns to the program with his thoughts on the precious metals sector. His work indicates much higher levels ahead for the sector, once the underlying bullion regains its footing. Our guest doubts the Fed or their central banking colleagues will raise rates for years to come, to the delight of gold aficionados. Monetary policymakers are overwhelmed by staggering global debt levels - the 5 leading US money center banks alone hold over $200 trillion in interest rate sensitive, notional derivatives - financial weapons of mass destruction (F-WMD). As a result, even the hint of higher nominal rates could trigger a worldwide debt implosion of epic magnitude, as financial institutions first and then nations, fall like lead weighted dominoes. The issue appears to stem from the failure of officials to recognize the global scope of inflation - the deflation specter may actually be merely a decrease in the inflation growth rate or disinflation, amid the largest sea of inflation in history. Previous hyperinflationary episodes were contained by national borders; never in history has the global economy faced such a tsunami of inflation. Moreover, according to theory originating from the School of Austrian Economics, once national debt reaches critical mass, officials must either stop the monetary printing presses or hyperinflation on a worldwide scale (first time in history) is imminent. So how could nearly 7 billion people around the globe be unprepared for the looming financial threat? Our guest notes cognitive dissonance as the culprit; the best way to cope with a seemingly impossible threat is to ignore it - similar to living near an earthquake ridden fault line. The host suggests an alternative hypothesis: perhaps conditions for most people have deteriorated to such a challenging level that survival, not preparedness is the most pressing issue. The host firmly agrees with John Embry and his business partner Eric Sprott who insist that silver represents the most undervalued asset class with the best prospects for impressive growth. Their analysis suggests a 10 fold increase in silver is likely, which could represent a significantly low-ball estimate, if global debt spirals out of control. This unsavory outcome is anticipated by many leading economists, such as show favorite, Professor Lawrence Kotlikoff and several Nobel Laureate economists (US debt estimate: $220 trillion). In addition, base metal mining production is lackluster, a primary source of new silver production. Lower silver supply could add to already explosive demand, resulting in a massive shortage, as seen in the output constrains at the Perth Mint, Royal Canadian mint, US mint and British mint. The end result could be a price surge of Herculean proportions. The duo concur - the modern investing mindset requires a new epistemology, from that of capital appreciation, to wealth preservation.

 

Bob Hoye & Chris Waltzek - October 22, 2015.

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Recap.:

  • Chris welcomes back Bob Hoye, senior investment strategist of Institutional Advisors.
  • The first silver coin minted in the US in 1794 sold at auction for $4,993,750 this week, an extreme illustration of the wealth preserving qualities of the PMs.
  • Institutional Advisors, suggests that every investor own gold as insurance against the unexpected, particularly in the long-term.
  • Our guest ignores the PMs supply / demand conditions, preferring instead to monitor silver / gold ratio for credit issues.
  • His in-depth technical analysis agrees with that of the host - US equities may be re-testing a break-down, resistance level, indicative of a bear market.
  • The recent lackluster domestic unemployment announcement could restrain Fed policymakers from raising rates.
  • The head of Tocqueville PMs fund expects the continued flow of PMs from Western nations to Eastern countries to culminate in a short-squeeze of epic proportions.
  • In the next phase of the credit crisis, gold could surge higher, as a refuge of last resort.

Chris welcomes back Bob Hoye, senior investment strategist of Institutional Advisors - the first silver coin minted in the US in 1794 sold at auction for $4,993,750 this week, an extreme illustration of the remarkable purchasing power, preserving qualities of the PMs,"the coin was first owned by a British aristocrat who acquired the dollar after it was minted in Philadelphia." Institutional Advisors, suggests that every investor own gold as insurance against the unexpected, particularly in the long-term. Our guest ignores the PMs supply / demand conditions, preferring instead to monitor silver / gold ratio for credit issues. His in-depth technical analysis agrees with that of the host - US equities may be re-testing a break-down, resistance level, indicative of a bear market. The recent lackluster domestic unemployment announcement could restrain Fed policymakers from raising rates. The head of Tocqueville PMs fund expects the continued flow of PMs from Western nations to Eastern countries to culminate in a short-squeeze of epic proportions. In the next phase of the credit crisis, gold could surge higher, as a refuge of last resort.

 

 

Gerald Celente & Chris Waltzek - October 20, 2015.

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Summary:

  • Head of the Trends Research Institute, Gerald Celente outlines a less than sanguine economic ontology.
  • A modern economic depression could develop, due in part to stagnant wages and shadow unemployment.
  • Fed policymakers may heed Former Fed Head, Dr. Bernanke's suggestion to push the benchmark lending rate into negative territory.
  • In Dickensian-like fashion, savers hand over their capital to lenders, while paying for the less than savory opportunity.
  • The Trends Research Institute recently hosted a conference with leading speakers, including Dr. Paul Craig Roberts, Dr. Gary Null and Ralph Nader.
  • Our guest expects the premium for financial portfolio insurance to skyrocket, boosting demand / price of PMs, his preferred retirement safe haven.

Head of the Trends Research Institute, Gerald Celente outlines a less than sanguine economic ontology, noting a heightened concern over what could morph into a modern economic depression, due in part to stagnant wages and shadow unemployment. In response, Fed policymakers may heed Former Fed Head, Dr. Bernanke's suggestion to push the benchmark lending rate into negative territory, similar to rates in the European Union. In Dickensian-like fashion, savers hand over their capital to lenders, while paying for the less than savory opportunity. The Trends Research Institute recently hosted a conference with leading speakers, including Dr. Paul Craig Roberts, Dr. Gary Null and Ralph Nader; the video is available online. Given the recent equities market volatility, amid increased global QE / currency instability, our guest expects the premium for financial portfolio insurance to skyrocket, boosting demand and price of gold / silver, his preferred retirement safe haven.

 

Louis Navellier & Chris Waltzek - Oct. 15, 2015.

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Summary:

  • Chris welcomes back Louis Navellier of Navellier Growth for another market discussion.
  • Louis has a knack for identifying multi-year themes in the market, well ahead of the top financial pundits.
  • He outlines the similarities between the 2011 downdraft in US shares and 2015, noting expectations for one more retest of the September 2015 lows.
  • More cautious investors are advised to consider reentering equities positions on the week before Thanksgiving.
  • Our guest is watching the Fed closely - he expects policymakers to hold rates steady, otherwise increase a quarter percent in December.
  • He places low odds on a 2016 rate hike, due to the upcoming November election.
  • Favorite stock sectors include health care, such as CVS (CVS), as well as Darden Restaurants (Capital Grille) (DRI), Costco (COST), Lowes (LOW), Southwest Airlines Lowes (LUV) and Starbuck's Coffee (SBUX).

Chris welcomes back Louis Navellier of Navellier Growth for another market discussion - Louis has a knack for identifying multi-year themes in the market, well ahead of the top financial pundits. He outlines the similarities between the 2011 downdraft in US shares and 2015, noting expectations for one more retest of the September 2015 lows, before returning to the previous peak (Figure 1.1). More cautious investors are advised to consider reentering equities positions on the week before Thanksgiving, as investors tend to bid up prices during that holiday period. Our guest is watching the Fed closely - he expects policymakers to hold steady on rates or increase a quarter percent in December, with a "one and done" scenario. He places low odds on a 2016 rate hike, due to the upcoming November 2016 election. Favorite stock sectors include health care, such as CVS (CVS), as well as Darden Restaurants (Capital Grille) (DRI), Costco DRI (COST), Lowes (LOW), Southwest Airlines Lowes (LUV) and Starbuck's Coffee (SBUX).

Figure 1.1. 2011 vs. 2015 Equities Market - Louis Navellier

Note: Graph courtesy of Navellier and Associates, 2015 all rights reserved.

 

Peter Schiff & Chris Waltzek - October 14, 2015.

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Summary:

  • Chris welcomes Peter Schiff, Chairman of SchiffGold.com.

  • The discussion includes less than robust economic reports including sluggish retail sales.

  • Peter Schiff thinks the economic recovery is less than genuine; conditions are far more dire than reported.

  • According to a major EU investment bank Saxo, gold may have found a solid bottom - the yellow metal could soar as high as $1,400.

  • However, Peter Schiff thinks the figure is conservative, given the recent failure by Fed policymakers to raise rates.

  • His findings indicate the true Fed agenda involves preparations for the next round of monetary easing, QE4.

  • Bullion supply conditions remain constrained - the US Mint and the Canadian Mint are unable to meet demand due in part to weekly silver coin quotas.

  • In addition, the Australian Perth Mint sold a record 2.5 million silver ounces in the latest reading; an all time record.

  • Even if gold were to decline to $800 the small downside risk is fractional relative to the upside potential; the risk-reward is highly favorable.

  • 2016 could be the renaissance year for the PMs, gold may surprise even the most staunch aficionado as the sector begins to reflect true intrinsic value.

  • Even with the 14% advance in the XAU index last week, gold shares may represent a fantastic opportunity, relative to general equities.

  • Plus, the real estate sector may experience an epic plunge, similar to the 2006 peak, as financial institutions unload huge shadow inventories on a public ill-prepared to switch from renting back to home ownership.

Chris welcomes Peter Schiff, Chairman of SchiffGold.com - the discussion includes less than robust economic reports including sluggish retail sales. Peter Schiff thinks the economic recovery is less than genuine; conditions are far more dire than reported. According to a major EU investment bank Saxo, gold may have found a solid bottom - the yellow metal could soar as high as $1,400. However, Peter Schiff thinks the figure is conservative, given the recent failure by Fed policymakers to raise rates. His findings indicate the true Fed agenda involves preparations for the next round of monetary easing, QE4. Bullion supply conditions remain constrained - the US Mint and the Canadian Mint are unable to meet demand due in part to weekly silver coin quotas. In addition, the Australian Perth Mint sold a record 2.5 million silver ounces in the latest reading; an all time record. Peter Schiff reports sales at SchiffGold.com are solid. Even if gold were to decline to $800 (Peter Schiff finds this scenario doubtful) the small downside risk is fractional relative to the upside potential; the risk-reward is highly favorable. 2016 could be the renaissance year for the PMs, gold may surprise even the most staunch aficionado as the sector begins to reflect true intrinsic value. Even with the 14% advance in the XAU index last week, gold shares may represent a fantastic opportunity, relative to general equities. Plus, the real estate sector may experience an epic plunge, similar to the 2006 peak, as financial institutions unload huge shadow inventories on a public ill-prepared to switch from renting back to home ownership.

 

Arch Crawford & Chris Waltzek - Oct. 8, 2015.

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Show Recap.:

  • Arch Crawford, head of Crawford Perspectives, - he's double short the market bounce, in anticipation of continued volatility.
  • Arch likes the PMs, noting that tight supply conditions could help bring about a renaissance in the sector
  • He is accumulating silver in his personal stockpile.
  • Arch Crawford thinks the rebound rally is merely a bounce.
  • He earned $500,000 shorting US equities in 2008, using only $2,500, via put options.
  • He is currently following a similar strategy (caution advisable).
  • Although the Black-Scholes options pricing model works well with at / near-the-money-strike prices, far out-of-the-money options tend to be vastly underpriced.
  • This presents huge opportunity at market tipping points, according to chaos theory, Dr. Taleb, Arch Crawford and the host.
  • The duo suspect that the next bull market in the precious metals (PMs) could unfold in lightning fashion, beginning with a sudden dollar collapse.
  • The impetus could be continued US Treasury sales by the BRICS nations, per current headline reports.
  • The financial dialogue resumes with WTIC - Arch thinks that buying opportunities will abound in black gold.

     

Arch Crawford, head of Crawford Perspectives, was one of the few pundits to call the stock market swoon of 2015 - he's double short the market bounce, in anticipation of continued volatility. With the 50 day moving average dropping below the 200 day moving average on many stocks / indexes, the onus falls firmly on the shoulders of bullish investors to disprove the bearish case. Arch Crawford thinks the rebound rally is merely a bounce, representing an opportunity for investors to lighten portfolios of equities in favor of cash and bear funds/ETFs. Arch earned $500,000 shorting US equities in 2008, using only $2,500, via put options. He's following a similar strategy (caution advisable). Although the Black-Scholes options pricing model works well with at / near-the-money-strike prices, far out-of-the-money options tend to be vastly underpriced, because the normal distribution used by the model (some versions) does not account for inherent market fragility as accurately as does the heavy-tailed or Pareto distribution model. This presents huge opportunity at market tipping points, according to chaos theory, Dr. Taleb, Arch Crawford and the host. The duo suspect that the next bull market in the precious metals (PMs) could unfold in lightning fashion, beginning with a sudden dollar collapse, culminating in a startling price markup, with little / no time for the typical investor to accumulate a position. The impetus could be continued US Treasury sales by the BRICS nations, per current headline reports. The host / guest share a passion for physics / cosmology - the discussion briefly involves an esoteric talk on fractal theory and quantum electro dynamics, including the work of Dr.'s Mandelbrot and Paul Dark. The financial dialogue resumes with WTIC - Arch thinks that buying opportunities will abound in black gold once the downtrend passes. Arch likes the PMs, noting that tight supply conditions could help bring about a renaissance in the sector - he is accumulating silver in his personal stockpile.

 

Ross Givens & Chris Waltzek - Oct. 6, 2015.

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Summary:

  • Chris welcomes Ross Givens, from Wealth Empire to the show.
  • The duo concur that the Blog-o-Fear may be wrong on US equities; stocks are oversold and could present a long-term portfolio opportunity.
  • Stocks represent an excellent valuation over fixed-rate debt instruments, such as bonds.
  • His work indicates that gold / silver are reaching fire sale prices as the cash cost of mining production approaches the spot price.
  • Mining production is low and supply is tight.
  • When price is low, fewer projects are viable adding to already narrow supply conditions.
  • The net result is increased demand, which is perfect for bull market conditions.
  • He suggests adding the gold stock mining ETF to portfolios (GDX) to leverage a potential gold bull market.
  • The host suggests the (GDXJ) to participate in the smaller cap gold / silver mining operations, with the proviso of dollar cost averaging into positions.
  • The crude oil sector is entering similar conditions, where investment in new operations has dwindled, setting up a long-term opportunity.
  • Similar to the Alpha Stocks Newsletter, Wealth Empire monitors the investment strategies of top hedge fund investors and money managers, like Warren
  • Buffett, George Soros, and Carl Icahn, through SEC holdings reports.
    Favorite stocks include Apple Computer (AAPL) and General Motors (GM).

Chris welcomes Ross Givens, from Wealth Empire to the show - the duo agree that the Blog-o-Fear may be wrong on US equities; stocks are oversold and could present a long-term portfolio opportunity. With the risk-free rate extremely low by historical standards, amid dovish Fed rhetoric, stocks represent an excellent valuation over fixed-rate debt instruments, such as bonds. His work indicates that gold / silver are reaching fire sale prices as the cash cost of mining production approaches the spot price, mining production is low and supply is tight. When price is low, fewer projects are viable adding to already narrow supply conditions. The net result is increased demand, which is perfect for bull market conditions. He suggests investors add the gold stock mining ETF to their portfolios (GDX) to leverage a potential gold bull market. The host suggests the (GDXJ) to participate in the smaller cap gold / silver mining operations, with the proviso of dollar cost averaging into positions, to guard against a potential selloff stemming from potential Fed rate hikes in 2016. The crude oil sector is entering similar conditions, where investment in new operations has dwindled, setting up a long-term opportunity to run back to the bull market high near $140 per barrel. Similar to the Alpha Stocks Newsletter, Wealth Empire monitors the investment strategies of top hedge fund investors and money managers, like Warren Buffett, George Soros, and Carl Icahn, through SEC holdings reports. Favorite stocks include Apple Computer (AAPL) and General Motors (GM).

 

Harry S. Dent Jr. & Chris Waltzek - Sept. 30, 2015.

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Summary:

Economist and best-selling author Harry S. Dent Jr., returns with commentary on the latest FOMC rate decision. Fed officials have no intentions of hiking rates in 2015, despite the hawkish rhetoric making the media reports. Financial debt-bubbles are typically followed by deflation, not inflation, which is a key reason why Fed policymakers hands are tied. Too many money managers piled into the risk-off, long-only trade - the unwinding process could be more protracted than anticipated

The recent equities selloff could be merely the opening salvo of a new downtrend in equities, culminating with multiple price implosions.

The downtrend could persist throughout 2016.

The housing, echo-boom of 2009-2015 is losing momentum as investors / builders brace for higher rates.
Household income per capita has plunged since 2008, more than $5,000 - eroding another key housing demand factor.
Harry S. Dent notes the new long-term downtrend in housing.

He expects the market to drop by at least 40-50% on average and much more in frothy regions.

The net result will be buying opportunities for those who anticipating the sea change event.

The HGX Housing Index, appears to be developing the most bearish of all technical price patterns (Figure 1.1.).

Economist and best-selling author Harry S. Dent Jr., Returns with commentary on the latest FOMC rate decision. Clearly, Fed officials have no intentions of hiking rates in 2015, despite the hawkish rhetoric making the media reports. Financial debt-bubbles are typically followed by deflation, not inflation, which is a key reason why Fed policymakers hands are tied. Too many money managers piled into the risk-off, long-only trade - the unwinding process could be more protracted than anticipated by the mainline punditry. Our guest views the recent equities selloff as merely the opening salvo of a new downtrend in equities, culminating with multiple price implosions, and a Dow Jones Industrials price range of 14,000-15,000. The downtrend could persist throughout 2016. Given that Saudi Arabia and nearby suppliers, can produce black gold for as little as $7 per barrel, the recent price slide will continue to inflict harm to the Midwest fracking and Canadian oil sands, industries.
In addition, the housing, echo-boom of 2009-2015 is losing momentum as investors / builders brace for higher rates, which increases mortgage costs, lowering demand for house purchases. Household income per capita has plunged since 2008, more than $5,000 - eroding another key housing demand factor. Harry S. Dent notes the new long-term downtrend in housing, citing massive student-loans plaguing the sector - he expects the market to drop by at least 40-50% on average and much more in frothy regions. The net result will be buying opportunities for those who anticipating the sea change event. Moreover, the HGX Housing Index, appears to be developing the most bearish of all technical price patterns (Figure 1.1.).

 

Figure 1.1. HGX Housing Index - Bearish Diamond Pattern

Note: Chart courtesy of thinkorswim / tdameritrade.

Harry S. Dent expects the trend of westward economic growth to shift from China to Southwest Asia and India. India could experience the next China-like economic miracle, catapulting the nation of 1.25 billion people from BRICS status to remarkable affluence. One interesting Indian stock opportunity is Dr. Reddy's Lab (RDY).

 

Bill Murphy & Chris Waltzek - Sept. 29, 2015.

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Recap:

Chris welcomes back to the show, Bill Murphy from GATA.org. The discussion includes Nassim Taleb's latest work, AntiFragile, free PDF link listed below.
Due to Fed intervention, risk was removed from the markets, that is until recently.
Even hedge funds that are supposed to ameliorate risk, employed long-only investment strategies to remain competitive.
However, without the Fed rate panacea, the threat of higher rates rattled the markets.
The duo discuss the growing crowd of cognoscente who insist that the precious metals (PMs) markets are manipulated.
Bill Murphy agrees with friend of the show, Jim Rogers, that a currency crisis could unfold, sending the precious metals skyward.
For instance, the Argentine currency dilemma resulted with a 100% in the price of gold in approximately 12 months (Figure 1.1.).

The next bull market in gold / silver and related equities could unfold at an alarming pace, making the prescribed accumulation via dollar cost averaging all the more sound an investment strategy.

Despite months of hawkish jawboning by Fed policymakers, the benchmark overnight lending rate will remain fixed at .25 at the next FOMC meeting, with a 91% probability (Figure 1.2.).

The duo ask the poignant question, "What do Fed policymakers know about the domestic economy, that is holding back the inevitable rate hike?"

Chris welcomes back to the show, Bill Murphy from GATA.org. The discussion includes Nassim Taleb's latest work, AntiFragile, Things that Gain from Disorder (Incerto) (Free book PDF here, malware scan advisable). Due to Fed intervention, risk was removed from the markets, that is until recently. Even hedge funds that are supposed to ameliorate risk, employed long-only investment strategies to remain competitive. However, without the Fed rate panacea, the threat of higher rates rattled the markets. The duo discuss the growing crowd of cognoscente who insist that the precious metals (PMs) markets are manipulated. Bill Murphy agrees with friend of the show, Jim Rogers, that a currency crisis could unfold, sending the precious metals skyward. For instance, the Argentine currency dilemma resulted with a 100% in the price of gold in approximately 12 months (Figure 1.1.).

Figure 1.1. Gold Gains 100% vs. Argentine Currency

Note: Chart courtesy of Google.com, Images.

The next bull market in gold / silver and related equities could unfold at an alarming pace, making the prescribed accumulation via dollar cost averaging all the more sound an investment strategy. In addition, despite months of hawkish jawboning by Fed policymakers, the benchmark overnight lending rate will remain fixed at .25 at the next FOMC meeting, with a 91% probability (Figure 1.2.). The duo ask the poignant question, "What do Fed policymakers know about the domestic economy, that is holding back the inevitable rate hike?"

Figure 1.2. Oct. Rate Hike Odds - Fed Funds Futures

Note: Chart courtesy of CME Group.

 

 

Avi Gilburt & Chris Waltzek - September 22, 2015.

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Recap.:

Chris welcomes Avi Gilburt, from Elliott Wave Trader in his debut on the show. His team specializes in identifying market tops / bottoms. According to his Elliott Wave count-analysis, gold could ascend beyond $25,000. Gold could climb by 50 fold, over the next few decades.
His near-term perspective includes the precious metals sector (PMs) recording a nadir within the next 6 months, resulting in a multi-year bull market. Avi outlines his outlook on the US equities market, noting a minimum downside target has been met, but the bottom is not yet firmly in place.
Once the correction passes in the next month or so, his forecast suggests the remarkable 6 yearlong, equities market rally will resume.
He's watching WTIC for a retest of the lows before adding a position to the long-term portfolio.
Chris welcomes Avi Gilburt, from Elliott Wave Trader in his debut on the show. His team specializes in identifying the tops / bottoms of key market trends. According to his Elliott Wave count-analysis, gold could ascend beyond $25,000 and gold equities indexes by 50 fold, over the next few decades. His near-term perspective includes a nadir in the precious metals sector (PMs) within the next 6 months, resulting in a multi-year bull market. Last week, the FOMC failed to raise rates a quarter point as indicated by policymaker speeches - it appears Fed policymakers are concerned that the economy could be facing a recession. Investors were displeased with the decision, selling US equities last week following the Thursday decision. Avi outlines his outlook on the US equities market, noting a minimum downside target has been met, but the bottom is not yet firmly in place. Nonetheless, once the correction passes in the next month or so, his forecast suggests the remarkable 6 yearlong, equities market rally will resume. He's watching WTIC for a retest of the lows before adding a position to the long-term portfolio.

 

Bob Hoye & Chris Waltzek - September 18, 2015.

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Recap.:

Bob Hoye, senior investment strategist at Institutional Advisors, and the host discuss the big rate decision. Policymakers are actually follow the rate trends, reacting to rates, not setting them.

The economy is based on the beliefs and behaviors of at least 300 million Americans and billions of people worldwide.

Attempting to quantify and then predict the related outcomes on such a complex system is fraught with challenges.

The economy is far too complex to draw broad based conclusions from simple points.

This is the Achilles heal of monetary policy. Although bullish on the gold sector, in order for the gold shares to rebound solidly, the underlying bullion must first stabilize.

Keeping powder in reserve for buying opportunities is advisable.

Bob Hoye, senior investment strategist at Institutional Advisors, and the host discuss the big rate decision. Policymakers are actually following the rate trends, reacting to rates, not setting them. The crux of the problem stems from drawing conclusions from false premises. Simple syllogisms (cause and effect relationships), work well with basic systems. For instance, the two premises: a red sky and dusk leads to fair weather the next morning. However, the economy is based on the beliefs and behaviors of at least 300 million Americans and billions of people worldwide. Attempting to quantify and then predict the related outcomes on such a complex system is fraught with challenges. In fact, the economy is far too complex to draw broad based conclusions from simple points. This is the Achilles heal of monetary policy. Although bullish on the gold sector, in order for the gold shares to rebound solidly, the underlying bullion must first stabilize - keeping powder in reserve for buying opportunities is advisable.

 

Vince Bodnar, Chief Actuary LTCG & Chris Waltzek - Sept. 17, 2015.

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Summary:

LTCG Chief Actuary, Vince Bodnar makes his debut on the show.
From humble beginnings in the 1600's at Lloyd's of London Coffee shop, on Lombard Street, the insurance industry is integral to the modern world.
Millions of people sleep soundly at night, knowing that their families, homes and autos are secured against unforeseen events and economic calamity.
Actuaries quantify peace of mind, minimize the overall expense in turn maximizing benefit to the policyholder, society, shareholders and their firm.
For instance, one predictive models involves credit score - evidently policyholders with high credit scores tend to have fewer traffic related accidents.
Baysean analysis used by actuaries can vastly reduce the number of false positives, reducing unnecessary and sometimes dangerous procedures / expenses.
One central concept emerging from the field involves the extended life span expected by millions of retirees.
Living decades after retirement requires careful planning for not only the policyholder, but the insurance firm.
Simple changes in lifestyle, such as vegetarian diet increases lifespan by over 7 years in females and almost 10 years in males.
Chief Bodnar encourages all mathematically inclined listeners to learn more about the actuarial sciences as a profession.

LTCG Chief Actuary, Vince Bodnar makes his debut on the show. From humble beginnings at Lloyd's of London Coffee shop, on Lombard Street in the 1600's, the insurance industry is integral to the modern world. Millions of people sleep soundly at night, knowing that their families, homes and autos are secured against unforeseen events and economic calamity. Actuaries quantify that peace of mind, minimize the overall expense in turn maximizing benefit to the policyholder, society, shareholders and their firm. For instance, one predictive models involves credit score - evidently policyholders with high credit scores tend to have fewer traffic related accidents. In addition, via conditional probability stemming from Bayesian analysis used by actuaries, physicians can vastly reduce the number of false positives from medical tests - reducing unnecessary and sometimes dangerous procedures / expenses. One central concept emerging from the field involves the extended lifespans expected by millions of retirees. Living decades after retirement requires careful planning for not only the policyholder, but the insurance firm, to insure that both parties benefit from the arrangement. Simple changes in lifestyle, such as vegetarian diet increases lifespan by over 7 years in females and almost 10 years in males. Chief Bodnar encourages all mathematically inclined listeners to learn more about the actuarial sciences as a profession.

 

Jim Rogers & Chris Waltzek - Sept. 16, 2015.

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Summary:

From the Big Apple, NY, NY, Jim Rogers says the upcoming Fed rate decision tomorrow, Thursday, Sept. 17, could be a game-changing moment. The current implied probability of the 30-Day Fed Funds Futures indicates only a 22% likelihood of a rate hike at tomorrow's FOMC meeting. Nevertheless, the financial powerhouse shares Axel Merk's sentiments, Fed Chair Janet Yellen could surprise investors with a token rate hike. Eventually market forces will overwhelm monetary policies. He remains bullish, especially on the yellow metal in the long-term horizon.

"... Gold will be in a bubble someday, don't worry..."

Cash is king - his analysis indicates that the Greenback will continue to ascend for the time being, eventually culminating in bubble like conditions.

He plans to sell his US dollar position at that point and back up the truck for a Fort Knox size gold shipment.

The crude oil market may be reaching a nadir; a double bottom pattern could be the ideal entry point to boost portfolio exposure.

However, Jim Rogers is less convinced that US equities have reached a frothy bubble like environment.

From the Big Apple, NY, NY, Jim Rogers views the upcoming Fed rate decision tomorrow, Thursday, Sept. 17, as a game-changing moment. The current implied probability of the 30-Day Fed Funds Futures indicates only a 22% likelihood of a rate hike at tomorrow's FOMC meeting, half of last month's figure. Nevertheless, the financial powerhouse shares Axel Merk's sentiments, Fed Chair Janet Yellen could surprise investors with a token rate hike, one quarter of a percent to .5%. Nobel Laureate, Professor Robert Shiller, one of the few leading economists to spot the housing bubble, recently announced that the US equities markets has entered bubble territory. Although Jim Rogers views stocks as overvalued by individual sectors and it's atypical to see advances with such shallow declines, he's less convinced that US equities have reached a frothy bubble like environment. However, unlike the former Fed-Head Bernanke, the current Chair is far less focussed on the potentially deflationary aspects / outcomes and is more hawkish, increasing the prospects of a rate hike, presently. Eventually market forces will overwhelm monetary policies. He remains bullish, especially on the yellow metal in the long-term horizon, noting "...Gold will be in a bubble someday, don't worry..." Cash is king - his analysis indicates that the Greenback will continue to ascend for the time being, enter bubble like conditions, at which point he plans to sell his position and back up the truck for a Fort Knox size ...Gold shipment. The crude oil market may be reaching a nadir; a double bottom pattern could be the ideal entry point to boost portfolio exposure.

 

Axel Merk & Chris Waltzek - Sept. 11, 2015.

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Recap.:

Axel Merk, head of Merk Investments returns to the show - he thinks the Fed should balk on next week's proposed rate hike.

Instead, policymakers will likely engineer a ZIRP exit strategy.

By reducing volatility / exposure to zero, the Fed "put" has lulled investors into a false sense of security, forcing savings into risky assets.

The resulting complacency is costly and could increase risk along with volatility in the coming weeks / months as investors adjust expectations.

Our guest outlines a robust, portfolio diversification-strategy.

From a contrarian stance, ...Gold offers a solid alternative to over priced equities. Merk Investments created a ...Gold ETF with the benefit of delivery.

Investors can request delivery of American ...Gold Eagles to their doorsteps in one week, regardless of market volatility (OUNZ).

Axel Merk, head of Merk Investments returns to the show - he thinks the Fed should balk on next week's proposed rate hike, the first since 2006, following the advice of former Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke. Instead, policymakers will likely engineer a ZIRP exit strategy, pulling the trigger too quickly, before the deflation threat has fully passed. By reducing volatility / exposure to zero, the Fed "put" has lulled investors into a false sense of security, forcing savings into risky assets due to zero interest rates. Nevertheless, the resulting complacency is costly and could increase along with volatility in the coming weeks / months as investors adjust expectations to include a significant increase in risk. Our guest outlines a robust, portfolio diversification-strategy by way of global currencies, to vastly reduce exposure to market volatility while enhancing overall expected return. From a contrarian stance, ...Gold and silver provide solid alternatives to over priced equities. Merk Investments offers a ...Gold ETF with the benefit of delivery; it is not just theoretical, investors can request delivery of American ...Gold Eagles to their doorsteps in one week, regardless of market volatility (OUNZ).

Listener's Q&A (phone calls) - Chris Waltzek - Sept. 10, 2015.

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Recap.:

George uses technical analysis to determine a floor for the ...Gold price between $800 and $1000, in similar fashion as the Alpha Stocks Newsletter.

He notes the bearish signal in his technical work and the bullish global demand.

One explanation offered by industry experts involves shorting by the PPT to orchestrate a positive economic environment.

It is essential to recognize the prevailing market bias, which remains downward.

At stockcharts.com (XAU) on the weekly chart set to 2001-2004, the XAU, ...Gold and silver consolidated for years before beginning a meaningful advance.

There's no need to fear missing the next big trend; instead waiting for the bias to shift to upward and dollar cost averaging is advisable

Bob in Texas is concerned by the threat of domestic bank bail-ins and exposure to derivatives such as MBS, CDO, etc.

Few if any institutions are completely shielded from toxic derivatives.

Once the next credit crisis begins in earnest many investors will be exposed to financial weapons of mass destruction.

By diversifying wealth outside of financial institutions, not all eggs are held in one basket; PMs and James Turk’s ...Gold money offer solid alternatives.

Caller, George uses technical analysis to determine a floor for the ...Gold price between $800 and $1000, in similar fashion as the Alpha Stocks Newsletter. He's perplexed by the conflicting bearish signal in his technical work and the bullish global demand as well as the potential for a force majeure and derivatives squeeze. One explanation offered by industry experts involves the PPT shorting the PMs to orchestrate a positive economic environment. Nevertheless it is essential to recognize the prevailing market bias, which remains downward. At stockcharts.com on the weekly chart set to 2001-2004, the XAU, ...Gold and silver consolidated above their primary trendlines for years before beginning a meaningful advance. Therefore, there's no need to fear missing the next big trend; instead waiting for the bias to shift to upward and then continue dollar cost averaging is advisable. A few solid markets in an uptrend include the dollar (UUP), and short term treasuries (SHY), even the 30 year treasury (TLT), however there is considerable volatility in the later. Bob in Texas is concerned over bank bail-ins and those with large derivatives exposure such as MBS, CDO, etc. Few if any institutions are completely shielded from toxic derivatives. Once the next credit crisis begins in earnest many firms will have unknown financial weapons of mass destruction. By diversifying wealth, not all eggs are held in one basket; PMs offer alternatives and James Turk’s ...Gold money is solid. Bob in Texas, bank bail-ins with large derivatives such as MBS, CDO, etc… Few if any institutions are completely shielded from toxic derivatives. Once the next credit crisis begins in earnest many firms will have unknown financial weapons of mass destruction. By diversifying wealth, not all eggs are held in one basket; PMs offer alternatives and James Turk’s ...Gold money is solid.

 

David Morgan & Chris Waltzek - Sept. 9, 2015.

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Summary:

The Silver Investor David Morgan and the host review and article penned by David Smith.
With silver production waning, demand could overwhelm supply.
According to his work the bottom may already be in place in the PMs market.
The following scenario could occur: silver gaps higher several dollars - silver eagles / maple leafs sell out over night - premiums on pre-'65 silver triple.
Major silver suppliers are reporting big premiums in pre-'65 silver, over $4.00 per ounce, a startling high figure.
Bull markets oftentimes require a base building period - David Morgan thinks that could be currently underway.
But even if the bottom is not in place, the precious metals remain the diversification tool, du jour for every investment portfolio.
David suggests watching the preparedness film, The Empty ATM.

The Silver Investor David Morgan and the host review and article penned by David Smith which shows that silver could shock the financial community with an explosive rally of epic proportions. With silver production waning, demand could overwhelm supply at a moment's notice. According to his work the bottom may already be in place for the precious metals. The following scenario could occur: silver gaps higher several dollars - silver eagles / maple leafs sell out over night - premiums on pre-'65 silver triple from the low of the previous day. Major silver suppliers are reporting big premiums in pre-'65 silver, over $4.00 per ounce, a startling high figure. Bull markets oftentimes require a base building period - David Morgan thinks that could be currently underway. But even if the bottom is not in place, the precious metals remain the diversification tool, du jour for every investment portfolio. David suggests watching the preparedness film, The Empty ATM.

 

 

James Turk & Chris Waltzek - September 3, 2015.

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Summary:

James Turk of GoldMoney.com returns to the program with less than sanguine comments on the equities markets.

A 2008 credit crisis redux appears imminent, due to reckless debt levels, domestically and around the globe.

Our guest says the Fed may raise rates by a token percentage this month and in December, and if so, the blowback will be monumental in scale, perhaps even toppling the entire economic edifice.

He's convinced that the PMs sector is nearing a sustainable nadir, on the heels of a 2 year consolidation.

Silver should lead the charge out of Dante's inferno.

The new bull market could reinvigorate mining company operations, in particular major producers with excellent earnings and solid dividends.

James Turk of GoldMoney.com returns to the program with less than sanguine comments on the equities markets - he's bracing for a 2008 credit crisis redux, thanks in no small part to reckless debt levels, domestically and around the globe. Our guest says the Fed may raise rates by a token percentage this month and in December, and if so, the blowback will be monumental in scale, perhaps even toppling the entire economic edifice. He's convinced that the PMs sector is nearing a sustainable nadir, on the heels of a 2 year consolidation. Silver should lead the charge out of Dante's inferno. The new bull market could reinvigorate mining company operations, in particular major producers with excellent earnings and solid dividends.

 

Peter Grandich & Chris Waltzek - September 2, 2015.

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Summary:

Peter Grandich rejoins the show with thoughts on geoeconomic events.
The PBoC shifted policy recently, selling $315 billion in US Treasuries from their $3.65 trillion reserve in support of the ailing Yuan currency and equities.
Clearly one of the wisest of the global central banks has lost faith in the Fed, ahead of the first US benchmark rate hike since 2006, nearly 10 years.
Higher rates dilutes the intrinsic value of existing US Treasuries, as newer issues offer greater expected return.
Our guest views the event as emblematic of a global crisis of confidence in centralized economic planning.
Intervention via the plunge protection team (PPT) was responsible for the 500 point rebound following the 2,000 point, 2-day deluge in the Dow Industrials.

In his 30 years on Wall Street, he's never seen so much negativity on the sector, a good sign that the ultimate nadir could be close.

His technical work suggests that a solid break above $1,200 ...Gold could lead to a brisk move to $1,300 - $1,400, in lightning fashion.

The host adds a cautionary note, that the onset of the last PMs bull market offered ample time to accumulate positions - in similar fashion, there should be no rush to overweight a diversified portfolio.

Peter Grandich of Peter Grandich and Company rejoins the show with comments on geoeconomic events. The PBoC shifted policy recently, selling $315 billion in US Treasuries from their $3.65 trillion reserve over 12 months, in support of the ailing Yuan currency and equities, according to a Bloomberg.com report. Clearly one of the wisest of the global central banks has lost faith in the Fed, ahead of the first US benchmark rate hike since 2006, nearly 10 years. Higher rates dilutes the intrinsic value of existing US Treasuries, as newer issues offer greater expected return. Our guest views the event as emblematic of a global crisis of confidence in centralized economic planning. Peter Grandich thinks intervention via the plunge protection team (PPT) was responsible for the 500 point rebound following the 2,000 point, 2-day deluge in the Dow Industrials Index. He's taking the contrarian viewpoint with regard to the precious metals - in his 30 years on Wall Street, he's never seen so much negativity on the sector, which is a good sign that the ultimate nadir could be close and a new bull market at hand . His technical work suggests that a solid break above $1,200 ...Gold could usher in a brisk move to $1,300 - $1,400, in lightning fashion. The host adds a cautionary note, that the inception of the last PMs bull market offered ample time to accumulate positions - in similar fashion, there should be no rush to overweight a diversified portfolio with any specific asset class until similar footprints emerge in the charts.

Jeffrey Christian & Chris Waltzek - August 27, 2015.

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Summary:

Prominent economic analyst, Jeffrey Christian of CPM Group rejoins the show on the heels of a pilgrimage to South Africa.
His team correctly forecasted the commodities sector weakness.

The cyclical decline in the bull market in commodities should conclude by 2018.

Our guest thinks the US Fed yields to, not commands the financial trends, so a hike of the benchmark lending rate is a non-sequitur.

Given the recent currency / equities market turmoil, worldwide.

Our guest is watching for signs that investors in China start booking substantial equities profits, redirecting capital into the precious metals market.

The battered crude oil sector could be presenting entry opportunities; any price below $40 represents a fair price, according to their models.

Prominent economic analyst, Jeffrey Christian of CPM Group rejoins the show on the heels of a pilgrimage to South Africa. His team correctly forecasted the commodities sector weakness - they expect the cyclical decline in the bull market in commodities by 2018. Our guest thinks the US Fed is behind the financial trends; raising the benchmark lending rate is a non-sequitur, given the recent currency / equities market turmoil, worldwide. Our guest is watching for signs that investors in China start booking substantial equities profits, redirecting capital into the precious metals market. They are watching the battered crude oil sector for entry opportunities; any price below $40 represents a fair price, according to their models.

 

David Nicoski & Chris Waltzek - August 26, 2015.

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Summary:

 

David Nicoski of Vermilion Technical Research makes his debut on the show - he deciphers the market dynamics from a technical perspective, in particular relative strength analysis. Starting last Wednesday, the market plunged sharply, fulfilling a bearish diamond pattern prophecy.

The thousand point decline in the Dow Jones Industrials Average last week was followed by a 1,000 point intraday collapse on Monday.

Our guest expects further negative price action amid a flurry of unexpectedly bearish news events.

An ominous diamond pattern recently emerged in US equities - strikingly similar to the 1929 market zenith.

One overlooked gem in the rough is the Nikkei index (DXJ).

David Nicoski thinks that Japan's equities bourse is on the cusp of a 10 year bull cycle.

His analysis on individual sectors can markedly improve portfolio results, as the typical difference between solid / weak sectors exceeds 45%.

The guest notes the US stock indexes should not be compared beyond a few years, as stocks are added / dropped too frequently to make useful comparisons.
He is waiting for a bottom pattern to unfold in the PMs sector, such as an inverse head and shoulders, double / triple bottom.

David Nicoski of Vermilion Technical Research makes his debut on the show - he deciphers the market dynamics from a technical perspective, in particular relative strength analysis. Starting last Wednesday, the market plunged sharply, fulfilling the diamond pattern prophecy. The thousand point decline in the Dow Jones Industrials Average last week was followed by a 1,000 point intraday collapse on Monday, which ended the day with a 588 point loss. Our guest expects further negative price action amid a flurry of unexpectedly bearish news events. An ominous diamond pattern recently emerged in US equities - strikingly similar to the 1929 market zenith. One overlooked gem in the rough is the Nikkei index (DXJ) - David Nicoski thinks that Japan's equities bourse is on the cusp of a 10 year bull cycle. His analysis on individual sectors can markedly improve portfolio results, as the typical difference between solid / weak sectors exceeds 45%. The guest makes an interesting point: the US stock indexes should not be compared beyond a few years, as stocks are added / dropped too frequently to make useful comparisons. He is waiting for a bottom pattern to unfold in the PMs sector, such as an inverse head and shoulders, double / triple bottom.

 

Gary Dorsch & Chris Waltzek - August 20, 2015.

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Summary:

Gary Dorsch, publisher of Global Money Trends Newsletter, notes how officials around the globe continue to debase their money to bolster ailing economies.

The race to the bottom may have dire consequences, worldwide.

Not only are some company shares collapsing, but their bonds, too.

Our guest notes that the economy is producing on average 200,000 jobs per month, home prices have recovered while corporate conditions have improved markedly, so it's inappropriate to hold rates near zero.

Expect the Fed to follow the advice of the BIS and end the 6.5 year holding pattern with a rate hike next month.

The ECB and BOJ will continue quantitative easing by a combined $1.5 trillion.

Yields on low quality bonds continue to soar, pushing prices to record lows.

Our guest expects ...Gold to find a bottom around $1,000 per ounce.
Proviso: if the Fed holds rates steady, the bottom may already be in place.

Gary Dorsch, publisher of Global Money Trends Newsletter, outlines global currency volatility - officials around the globe continue to debase their money to bolster ailing economies. Nonetheless, the race to the bottom may have dire consequences, worldwide. For instance, not only some company shares are collapsing, but their bonds, too. The impact on the sector is profound and officials are advised to take notice, as the infection could spread systemically through the economy. Our guest notes that the economy is producing on average 200,000 jobs per month, home prices have recovered sprightly and corporate conditions have improved markedly, so it's inappropriate to hold rates near zero. Therefore, he expects the Fed to follow the prodding of the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) to end the 6.5 year holding pattern and hike rates next month, while the ECB and BOJ accelerate quantitative easing by a combined $1.5 trillion. The net effect amounts to financial rocket fuel, which could catapult the US dollar higher, over the next year. Yields on low quality bonds continue to soar, pushing debt prices to record lows, similar to 2008. Gary Dorsch expects ...Gold to find a bottom around $1,000 per ounce, due in part to the $1,000 per ounce mining cost of production. However, if the Fed fails to hike rates as predicted, the bottom may already be in place.

Peter Schiff & Chris Waltzek - August 17, 2015.

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Summary:

Peter Schiff, Chairman of SchiffGold.com and the host discuss the expected Fed rate hikes, scheduled for as soon as next month.

Our guest thinks the benchmark rate will remain set near zero, providing the rocket fuel to propel the precious metals into orbit.

The domestic economic is in far worse shape than indicated by the official data so a rate hike could crush the economy.

Fed officials will avoid rate hikes igniting a new wave of quantitative easing, QE4.

Signs of underlying economic weakness abound, such as the lowest home ownership rate in 50 years.

The guest / host concur that the Monetarist panacea involves holding rates steady and not raising them to ward off the looming financial crisis.
Peter Schiff calms investors concerns regarding the bear market, noting that another 20 year downtrend is unlikely.
Peter Schiff, Chairman of SchiffGold.com and the host discuss the expected Fed rate hikes, scheduled for as soon as next month. Our guest thinks the benchmark rate will remain set near zero, providing the rocket fuel to propel the precious metals into orbit. The domestic economic is in far worse shape than indicated by the official data so a rate hike could crush the economy. Therefore, Fed officials will hold off on rate hikes. He expects a new wave of quantitative easing, QE4 as officials recognize the bogus statistics has also limited their available options to avert an economic implosion. Signs of underlying economic weakness abound, such as the lowest home ownership rate in 50 years - low income growth cannot support inflated McMansion mortgages. The guest / host concur that the Monetarist panacea involves holding rates steady and not raising them to ward off the looming financial crisis. Peter Schiff calms investors concerns regarding the bear market, noting that another 20 year downtrend is unlikely, thanks in no small part to the following financial bubbles: real estate, bonds and equities. ...Gold stocks are the cheapest in history, even better valued than in 2000.

 

 

John Williams & Chris Waltzek - August 13, 2015.

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Summary:

John Williams of Shadowstats.com returns to the show with dire comments on the domestic economy.
Headline inflation is understated by opaque statistical methods, making national output seem much more robust than reality.

 

Dollar strength is supported by the perception of economic recovery, but a stealth recession looms.

Once the the public recognizes they've been duped and panic ensues, his models indicate that ...Gold and energy investments will ascend to inspirational heights.

John Williams thinks investors should ignore the FOMC; even if officials raise rates in September and again in December, the markets have already discounted the event.

His constructs all foretell of a singular, inevitable outcome - global hyperinflation.

John Williams of Shadowstats.com returns to the show with dire comments on the domestic economy. Headline inflation is understated by opaque statistical methods, making national output seem much more robust than reality. In fact, a stealth recession looms. Dollar strength is supported by the perception of economic recovery, but the fata morgana could evaporate, leading to a devaluation of Herculean proportions. Once the panic ensues, his models indicate that ...Gold and energy investments will ascend to inspirational heights. John Williams thinks investors should ignore the FOMC; even if officials raise rates in September and again in December, the markets have already discounted the event. His models / constructs all foretell of a singular, inevitable outcome - global hyperinflation.

 

Dr. Stephen Leeb & Chris Waltzek - August 11, 2015.

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Summary:

Dr. Leeb and the host discuss the opportunity for every nation to extend friendship, embrace and glean pearls of wisdom from the second largest economic powerhouse, China to garner synergies across this national borders.
Dr. Leeb applauds China's initiative, in particular the recent 2015 stock market crash of 30% in only 3 weeks (PEK) was offset via swift intervention.
The host agrees with Dr. Leeb's stance on ...Gold backed currencies - it is an inevitability that price will adjust to reflect the true intrinsic value.
The discussion turns to the 2,500 year old book of wisdom, The Art of War by Sun Tzu (Free .Pdf copy here).
Dr. Leeb suggests the story of Ah Q, based loosely on reality, a China folk hero who overcame the slings of false accusations, slander and belittlement.
By understanding the wisdom of respect and fair treatment, Western officials, diplomats and business people can build synergies with China.

The duo discuss a concept posed in Wealth Building Strategies, Waltzek (2010), where officials could have directed the credit crisis related, trillions of dollars in bailout funds directly to struggling homeowners, and restored the financial system by reenacting the Glass-Stegall Act.

If US officials had accepted that the onus of debt repayment involves a partnership between the lender and the debtor, this nation would flourish amid a new economic-rennaissance.

Dr. Leeb reexamines ...Gold in terms of fiat money, noting gold's platonic qualities, particularly when juxtaposed against paper money.

When the monetary system eventually implodes and the injustices between the top and bottom classes comes to the fore, ...Gold will again regain an essential role in global society, making the precious metals a must-have asset for every individual.

 

Professed Americanophiles, Dr. Leeb and the host discuss the opportunity for every nation to extend friendship, embrace and glean pearls of wisdom from the second largest economic powerhouse, China to garner synergies across this national borders. Dr. Leeb applauds China's initiative, in particular the recent 2015 stock market crash of 30% in only 3 weeks (PEK) was offset via swift intervention on the part of officials (companies were allowed to halt share trading, and certain short selling was banned, etc..). The host agrees with Dr. Leeb's stance on ...Gold backed currencies - it is an inevitability that price will adjust to reflect the true intrinsic value at an astronomically higher price, reflecting the enormous paper money scheme. The discussion turns to the 2,500 year old book of wisdom, The Art of War by Sun Tzu (Free .Pdf copy here). Dr. Leeb suggests the story of Ah Q, based loosely on reality, a China folk hero who overcame the slings of false accusations, slander and belittlement. By understanding the wisdom of respect and fair treatment, Western officials, diplomats and business people can build synergies with China to the benefit of both cultures. In addition, the duo discuss a concept posed in Wealth Building Strategies, Waltzek (2010), where officials could have directed the credit crisis related, trillions of dollars in bailout funds directly to struggling homeowners, and restored the financial system by reenacting the Glass-Stegall Act. If US officials had accepted that the onus of debt repayment involves a partnership between the lender and the debtor, this nation would flourish amid a new economic-renaissance. Dr. Leeb reexamines ...Gold in terms of fiat money, noting gold's platonic qualities, particularly when juxtaposed against paper money. When the monetary system eventually implodes and the injustices between the top and bottom classes comes to the fore, ...Gold will again regain an essential role in global society, making the precious metals a must-have asset for every individual.

 

Gerald Celente & Chris Waltzek - August 7, 2015.

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Summary:

Gerald Celente says the Greeks invented Western society and are now at the forefront of its decline.
The duo discuss how the end of the Glass-Steagall Act, opened Pandora's box, leading to the crisis of 2008.
The banking system was not intended to be a national casino, but was established first as a means to facilitate individuals and businesses.

Despite the 2008 credit crisis that nearly collapsed the global economy, resulting with a total reset, little has changed.

The necessary legislation was not reinstated and 7.3 billion global inhabitants will eventually face another financial crisis of even greater significance.

Gerald Celente agrees that the economy is bifurcated between the haves and have-nots.

He makes a début announcement on Goldseek.com Radio: an equities crash is imminent.

Although the host does not concur with their sentiments, a correction of 10-20% is overdue, given empirical data.

Gerald notes the strong dollar may be tough for domestic ...Gold investors, but global investors are benefiting from precious metals valuations relative to the lost purchasing power of their currencies. Gerald Celente returns to the show with the latest edition of the Trends Journal. He says the Greeks invented Western society and are now at the forefront of its decline. The duo discuss how the end of the Glass-Steagall Act,(passed in 1933 as the Banking Act, which forbid money center banks managing individual accounts from engaging in speculative ventures with client funds), opened Pandora's box, leading to the crisis of 2008. The banking system was not intended to be a national casino, but was established first as a means to facilitate individuals and businesses. Yet despite the 2008 credit crisis that nearly collapsed the global economy, resulting with a total reset, little has changed - the necessary legislation was not reinstated and 7.3 billion global inhabitants will eventually face another financial crisis of even greater significance. Gerald Celente agrees that the economy is bifurcated between the haves and have-nots he makes a début announcement on Goldseek.com Radio: an equities crash is imminent, an ontology shared with virtually every previous pundit from earlier episodes on the show. Although the host does not concur with their sentiments, a correction of 10-20% is overdue, given empirical data. Gerald notes the strong dollar may be tough for domestic ...Gold investors, but global investors are benefiting from precious metals valuations relative to the lost purchasing power of their currencies.

 

Bob Hoye & Chris Waltzek - August 5, 2015.

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Recap:

Bob Hoye, senior investment strategist at Institutional Advisors, and the host examine the markets for signs of financial crisis.
Thanks to profligate money printing and complex derivatives, speculation is rife, increasing exposure and the risk of another financial crisis.

Amid several recent equities market implosions, in peripheral-nations, the infection could soon spread to Wall Street.

Bob Hoye presents his key technical market forecasting / prediction metrics, offering an invaluable educational opportunity for the technically inclined.

Following a three year rout, Bob expects a new ...Gold rally to ignite the next bull market.

The general equities market is showing signs of fatigue, given the weak advance / decline figures and negative seasonal factors.

The host defends the ...Gold standard as the de facto monetary base.

The common argument put forward by naysayers, that there's simply not enough ...Gold / silver to back all the money in the world, is a non sequitur an inevitable price eruption of epic proportions, looms.

Given the widening credit spreads and deflation threat, Bob suggests reducing debt exposures.

The duo applaud the work of Tutte and Flowers, two unsung heroes who facilitated the decryption of the Lorenz machine, the indecipherable cousin of the Enigma machine, considered an impossible intellectual feat at the time.

Bob Hoye, senior investment strategist at Institutional Advisors, and the host examine the markets for signs of financial crisis. Thanks to profligate money printing and complex derivatives, speculation is rife, increasing exposure and the risk of another financial crisis. In addition, amid several peripheral-nation equities market implosions, the infection could soon spread to Wall Street. Bob Hoye presents his key technical market forecasting / prediction metrics, offering an invaluable educational opportunity for the technically inclined. Following a three year rout, Bob expects a new ...Gold rally to ignite the next bull market. Conversely, the general equities market is showing signs of fatigue, given the weak advance / decline figures and negative seasonal factors. The host defends the ...Gold standard as the de facto monetary basis, noting how a founder of the field of economics, Adam Smith's invisible hand virtually assures that market forces will eventually overcome official schemes, sending the precious metals prices skyward. The common argument put forward by naysayers, that there's simply not enough ...Gold / silver to back all the money in the world, is a non sequitur - an inevitable price eruption of epic proportions, looms. Given the widening credit spreads and deflation threat, Bob suggests reducing debt exposures. The duo applaud the work of Tutte and Flowers, two unsung heroes who facilitated the decryption of the Lorenz machine, the indecipherable cousin of the Enigma machine, considered an impossible intellectual feat at the time. Their efforts arguably turned the tide of the Great War in favor of the allies.

 

Richard Daughty & Chris Waltzek - July 23, 2014.

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Summary:

Richard Daughty, AKA "The Mogambo Guru," returns to the show with comments on the impending Fed rate hikes.

Officials have borrowed far beyond their means, putting their constituents on the line in similar fashion as every other defunct government in economic history.

Not once in recorded history has any society escaped the clutches of a fiat paper system without facing severe financial consequences.

With nearly half of investors wealth tied to the US stock market, officials have a vested interest in holding prices artificially high.

The lack of transparency is becoming intense, financial opaqueness is the new standard practice.

The Mogambo has not ruled out divine intervention, yet he's hesitant to stake the household nest egg on it.

The duo compare the financial mess to the fateful last voyage of the RMS Titanic

Overconfidence has resulted with too few life boats for over 300 million Americans.

Savvy investors have learned the lesson of history, by adding precious metals investments to their portfolios, no financial iceberg is large enough to breach the portfolio hull.

The portability of precious metals further enhances the life preserver-like qualities.

Richard Daughty, AKA "The Mogambo Guru," returns to the show with comments on the impending Fed rate hikes. Officials have borrowed far beyond their means, putting their constituents on the line in similar fashion as every other defunct government in economic history. Not once in recorded history has any society escaped the clutches of a fiat paper system without facing severe financial consequences. With nearly half of investors wealth tied to the US stock market, officials have a vested interest in holding prices artificially high. His work indicates that huge amounts of capital is swept from the domestic banking system after business hours, directed to the bond market to maintain the status quo. But the lack of transparency is becoming intense, financial opaqueness is the new standard practice. The Mogambo has not ruled out divine intervention, yet he's hesitant to stake the household nest egg on it. The duo compare the financial mess to the fateful last voyage of the RMS Titanic - overconfidence has resulted with too few life boats for over 300 million Americans. Nonetheless, savvy investors have learned the lesson of history, by adding precious metals investments to their portfolios, no financial iceberg is large enough to breach the portfolio hull. The portability of precious metals further enhances the life preserver-like qualities.

John Embry & Chris Waltzek - July 21, 2015.

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Abstract:

 

John Embry, Chief Investment Strategist at Sprott Asset Management, returns to the program with his thoughts on the precious metals sector.
The duo caution investors from parking too many investment portfolio eggs in paper assets, stocks / bonds given the abrupt rout in the Shanghai index

Conversely, the pullback in the precious metals sector is presenting a golden opportunity to procure value via dollar cost averaging.

Given the current mega-discounted prices, ...Gold and silver producers are trading at a fraction of the price of their underlying metals.

Our guest notes the Greek nation is bankrupt, but EU economic ministers are constrained from stringent practices, because an exit could damage credibility, sending the dominos falling among other debt laden peripheral members.

The guest and host concur that the onus of responsibility for debt repayment falls squarely on the shoulders of the lender.

Nevertheless, the easy money carrot is still dangling, as the potential profits are too enticing for some to resist.

A mini-case study of Greece vs. Iceland involves the 2008 credit crisis.

Iceland emerged in far better economic shape.

By managing lenders and focusing on the rights of individuals, unemployment and GDP, economic order quickly revived, relative to Greece, where officials chose to ignore the Icelandic success story (Figures 1.1. - 1.3.).

The Icelandic tale resembles a modern economic version of David vs. Goliath.

 

John Embry, Chief Investment Strategist at Sprott Asset Management, returns to the program with his thoughts on the precious metals sector. The duo caution investors from parking too many investment portfolio eggs in paper assets, stocks / bonds given the abrupt rout in the Shanghai index shares, where a 30% decline occurred in only 3 weeks, illustrating how fast paper profits can evaporate. Conversely, the pullback in the precious metals sector is presenting a golden opportunity to procure value via dollar cost averaging. Given the current mega-discounted prices, ...Gold and silver producers are trading at a fraction of the price of their underlying metals. Our guest notes the Greek nation is bankrupt, but EU economic ministers are constrained from stringent practices, because an exit could damage credibility, sending the dominos falling among other debt laden peripheral members. The guest and host concur that the onus of responsibility for debt repayment falls squarely on the shoulders of the lender, but due in part to collateralization, the risk exposure was transferred away from the lenders, distributed among investors with little inside knowledge of the true default risk. The traditional lending system, where local lenders went to school / temple / church, etc. with the borrowers, was replaced with collateralization where debts are packaged, into CDS and MBS, tranched, sliced / diced to hypothetically contain risk. Nevertheless, the easy money carrot is still dangling, as the potential profits are too enticing for some to resist. A mini-case study of Greece vs. Iceland involves the 2008 credit crisis. Clearly, Iceland emerged in far better economic shape - by dealing with unfair lenders and focusing on the rights of individuals, unemployment and GDP, economic order quickly revived, relative to Greece, where officials chose to ignore the Icelandic success story (Figures 1.1. - 1.3.). The Icelandic tale resembles a modern economic version of David vs. Goliath - with virtually no political / military clout, less than 1 million people defeated a foe many times in number. Please click the images for a larger, closer view.

Figure 1.1. A Tale of Two Debtors: Greece vs. Iceland

Note: Graph courtesy of Google images.

 

Figure 1.2. Greece vs. Iceland: Unemployment

Note: Graph courtesy of Google images.

 

Figure 1.3. Greece vs. Iceland: National Economic Output - GDP

Note: Graph courtesy of Google images.

 

 

 

Arch Crawford & Chris Waltzek - July 16, 2015.

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Show Recap.:

Arch Crawford, head of Crawford Perspectives, is sticking with his dire prognostication for the rest of 2015.
The stock market could face severe consequences, amid market manipulation.

The M2 money supply velocity figure has collapsed to the lowest level on record, since first tabulated in 1959, suggesting that the trillions in Fed debt purchases has done little to stimulate economic output.

Institutions are simply parking cash in less risky investments amid severe market manipulation (Figure 1.1.).

Given the ominous "death cross" seen in the non-confirmation of the transports sector relative to new highs in the Dow Jones Industrials.

Arch says the market top is in place and no new highs are likely.

His prediction is dire, modern civilization hangs in the balance as a Kondratiev Winter-like scenario leads to the end of most financial markets.

At the root of the systematic problem is the fractional banking system, which prints money into existence at will with limited to zero oversight.

Nevertheless, cooler heads may prevail - the host shares his market ontology, coining the pun, "blog-o-fear," a play on blog-o-sphere, as fear sells and far too many pundits are making bearish calls.

Most market peaks are accompanied by euphoria and or complacency.

 

Arch Crawford, head of Crawford Perspectives, is sticking with his dire prognostication for the rest of 2015 - the stock market could face severe consequences, amid market manipulation. His work indicates startling parallels between the current global equities markets and the 2008 credit crisis deluge. The M2 money supply velocity figure has collapsed to the lowest level on record, since first tabulated in 1959, suggesting that the trillions in Fed debt purchases has done little to stimulate economic output. Institutions are simply parking cash in less risky investments amid severe market manipulation (Figure 1.1.).

Figure 1.1. Velocity of M2 Money Supply

Note: Graph courtesy of St. Louis Fed webpage.

Given the ominous "death cross" seen in the non-confirmation of the transports sector relative to new highs in the Dow Jones Industrials, Arch says the market top is in place and no new highs are likely. His ominous outlook includes the end of modern civilization, as a Kondratiev Winter scenario leads to the end of most financial markets. At the root of the systematic problem is the fractional banking system, which prints money into existence at will, with limited oversight. Nevertheless, cooler heads may prevail - the host shares his market ontology, coining the pun, "blog-o-fear," a play on blog-o-sphere, as fear sells and far too many pundits have donned bear suits; most market peaks are accompanied by euphoria and or complacency.

 

Catherine Austin Fitts & Chris Waltzek - July 14, 2015.

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Interview Recap.

Catherine Austin Fitts, former Assistant Secretary of Housing and Federal Housing Commissioner and president of Solari, Inc., publisher of the Solari Report, returns to the show.

She's concerned by the crumbling US infrastructure and lack of constructive efforts to rectify the situation.

Whereas, China continues to pour funds into its infrastructure On a trip to China she discovered that 80% of the legislature is written by economists / engineers, while 90% of US legislation is dictated by attorneys.

Investment in infrastructure will determine if the bifurcated economy unites as a viable competitive engine.

The former Wall Street maven says US stocks are overdue for a correction.

The US dollar rally, fomented by the Fed rate hike policies, could jeopardize the global equity market advance.

Catherine Austin Fitts, former Assistant Secretary of Housing and Federal Housing Commissioner and president of Solari, Inc., Publisher of the Solari Report, returns to the show. She's concerned by the crumbling US infrastructure and lack of constructive efforts to rectify the situation. Whereas, China continues to pour funds into its infrastructure On a trip to China she discovered that 80% of the legislature is written by economists / engineers, while 90% of US legislation is dictated by attorneys. Our guest is convinced that investment in infrastructure will determine if the bifurcated economy unites as a viable competitive engine. The former Wall Street maven says US stocks are overdue for a correction, supporting and echoing the sentiments of virtually all recent guests. The US dollar rally, fomented by the Fed rate hike policies, could jeopardize the global equity market rally.

 

CEO & President Christopher Jones & Chris Waltzek - July 9, 2015.

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Interview Recap.

CEO & President Christopher Jones of Uranium Resources (URRE) makes his debut appearance.

His track record of success spans 30 years and several companies including silver / copper mines, an oil sands operation and a coal company, culminating with the latest project, Uranium Resources (URRE).

One of CEO Christopher Jones' strengths includes a penchant for identifying companies with "great bones, potential and stories" then joining the management team, and transforming the diamond in the rough into a polished gem stone.

Uranium Resources is on track to become, "... a low cost producer able to produce in any conceivable market."

Our guest expects uranium prices to soar in the coming years, well above $40 a pound making operations highly profitable.

The Butler Ranch Project initial drill results from earlier this year and the data acquisition will facilitate resource confirmation drilling on the leases.

The discounted data acquisition cost ($150,000) resulted in a windfall 1.2 million pounds of resources, about one dime per pound.

Once the data arrives and is modeled, operations could commence as soon as 2018.

Two "ready to operate facilities" near Corpus Christi, Texas are each capable of 800,000 lbs. of production.

The Anatolia project has a remarkable IRR of 65%.

By moving the Rosita facility in Texas to Turkey, the $11 million in cost savings will boost the NPV / IRR, offering a competitive advantage to the benefit of the stockholders.

The Church Rock project and related properties include 200,000 acres in New Mexico near Albuquerque as well as Gallup, New Mexico.

The Anatolia equity listing in Australia will be maintained, enhancing investment related geographical-diversification.

Goldseek's President and mining company expert, Peter Spina has identified another exciting opportunity: Uranium Resources. CEO & President Christopher Jones makes his debut appearance. His track record of success spans 30 years and several operations including silver / copper mines, an oil sands operation and a coal company, culminating with the latest project, Uranium Resources (URRE). One of CEO Christopher Jones' talents includes identifying prospects with "great bones, potential and stories" and then joining the management team, transforming a diamond in the rough into a polished gem stone. Uranium Resources is on track to become "... a low cost producer able to produce in any conceivable market." Our guest expects uranium prices to soar in the coming years, well above $40 a pound facilitating profitable operations. The Butler Ranch Project initial drill results from earlier this year and the data acquisition will facilitate resource confirmation drilling on the leases. The discounted data acquisition of $150,000 resulted in a windfall of 1.2 million pounds of resources, at a bargain cost of one dime per pound. Once the data arrives and is modeled, operations could commence as soon as 2018. Two "ready to operate facilities" near Corpus Christi, Texas are each capable of 800,000 lbs. Of production. In addition, the Church Rock Project and related properties are comprised of 200,000 acres in New Mexico near Albuquerque as well as in Gallup, New Mexico. The Anatolia project has a remarkable IRR of 65%. The acquisition involves moving the Rosita facility in Texas to Turkey, en passant saving $11 million, boosting the NPV / IRR and yielding a competitive advantage to the benefit of stockholders. Furthermore, the Anatolia equity listing in Australia will be maintained, increasing share diversification qualities.

 

Harry S. Dent Jr. & Chris Waltzek - July 9, 2015.

 

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Summary:

Economist and best-selling author Harry S. Dent Jr., returns with comments on the latest Grexit drama, noting a default is imminent.
A bankruptcy will benefit the nation as forced fiscal responsibility curtails government profligacy.
The only country to effectively ameliorate the debt problem is Iceland, which defaulted on foreign debt shielding constituents from predatory lending practices.
The Icelandic economy has emerged from the malaise intact and better prepared to thrive in an increasingly complex / competitive global-economic landscape.
Their remarkable saga is an ideal precedent / case study / blue print for officials in the BRICS nations as well as the US / EU / Japan.
Given that the EU has never faced a financial crisis of such magnitude, the lack of precedent is disturbing to top money managers and economists.
If Greece were to leave the union, other members with similar debt issues could soon capitulate triggering a cascade of similar debt crises resulting in a fractured EU, with regional sovereign currencies.
As a seasoned traveler in high demand on the public speaking circuit around the world, our guest outlines his ideal destinations, including his home in Puerto Rico and his favorite country, Australia.

Harry S. Dent Jr. is anticipating a US stock market correction of 15-20% in the summer / fall months. He's convinced that all market bubbles must return to their inception point.

The US housing bubble has not yet returned to the year 2000 levels, increasing sector risk.

The host proposes that the massive shadow inventory held on bank balance sheets will eventually enter the marketplace in tandem with the millions in hedge fund housing-inventory, opening a price sinkhole across the nation and a credit crisis part deux.

The host notes the alarming void of understanding regarding fiat money schemes and their onerous track records.

The only viable alternatives, gold and silver, will eventually reflect their true intrinsic value, potentially hundreds of fold higher than current prices.

Economist and best-selling author Harry S. Dent Jr., Returns with comments on the latest Grexit drama, noting the situation is more significant than implied by mainline media reports - a default is imminent. Still, in the long-term horizon, a bankruptcy will benefit the nation as forced fiscal-responsibility curtails government-profligacy. He notes that the world is awash in bad debt and officials refuse to write-off the toxic loans. Yet due to a disconnect between lenders and the system, the losses are averted, indefinably. The only country to effectively ameliorate the debt problem is Iceland, which defaulted on foreign debt shielding constituents from predatory lending practices. Having taken the prescribed panacea, after two years of major adjustments, the Icelandic economy has emerged from the malaise intact and better prepared to thrive in an increasingly complex / competitive global economic landscape. Their remarkable saga is an ideal case study / blue print for officials in the BRICS nations as well as the US / EU / Japan. Given that the EU has never faced a financial crisis of such magnitude, the lack of precedent is disturbing to top money managers and economists. If Greece were to leave the union, other members with similar debt issues could soon capitulate, triggering a cascade of similar debt crises resulting in a fractured EU with regional sovereign currencies. As a seasoned traveler in high demand on the public speaking circuit around the world, our guest outlines his ideal destinations, including his home in Puerto Rico and his favorite country Australia. In addition, Scandinavian countries such as Sweden and Norway have extraordinary maternity benefits to the benefit of their workforce and demographics. Harry S. Dent Jr. Is anticipating a US stock market correction of 15-20% in the summer / fall months. He's convinced that all market bubbles must return to their inception point. While similar to the internet stock bubble of the late 1990's, the US housing bubble has not yet completely deflated back to year 2000 levels, making the sector risky. The echo housing recovery is predicated on collaterlized MBS debt, similar to the gimmicks that lead up to the original housing crisis of 2008. The host proposes that the massive shadow inventory held on bank balance sheets will eventually enter the market in tandem with the millions in hedge fund housing inventory, opening a massive price sinkhole across the nation and a credit crisis part deux. The host notes the alarming void of understanding regarding fiat money schemes and their onerous track records. Despite protestations of naysayers, when faith is lost in paper money, currencies will be anathema to wealth preservation oriented investors - the only viable alternatives gold and silver will eventually reflect their true intrinsic value, potentially hundreds of fold higher than current prices.

 

Bill Murphy & Chris Waltzek - July 2, 2015.

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Recap:

Bill Murphy from GATA.org and the host discuss the summer doldrums, noting how financial troubles in the EU have turned capital flows to the perceived safety of US equities / dollar.
However, the tactic could backfire as the temporary safe haven has enormous debt burdens as well.
For instance, the Governor of Puerto Rico announced this week that $70 billion in debt is unpayable, much smaller than the $400 billion owed by Greece.
The US is the grand champion of debt with unfunded liabilities are $210 trillion, five times the EU's unfunded burden of $40 trillion (Dr. Kotlikoff, 2015).
When unfunded liabilities are excluded and only debt on the books is examined, the US, UK and many competing nations share similar debt levels as Greece (Figure 1.1.).
Media reports suggest that China has accumulated over 10,000 tons of gold in preparation to back the Yuan with the metal, making it the new de facto global reserve currency.
Bill Murphy notes that the when the PMs bear market ends, prices will explode higher.
The host forecasts that after 2 small hikes in the benchmark rate in September and again in December, the Fed will pause, presenting an excellent opportunity to increase dollar cost averaging efforts.
The gold repatriation theme is gaining momentum as even US states demand billions of their gold reserves are returned.
Are officials positioning their chess pieces in anticipation of a new global reserve currency?

Bill Murphy from GATA.org and the host discuss the summer doldrums, noting how financial troubles in the EU have turned capital flows to the perceived safety of US equities / dollar. However, the tactic could backfire as the temporary safe haven has enormous debt burdens as well. For instance, the Governor of Puerto Rico announced this week that $70 billion in debt is unpayable, much smaller than the $400 billion owed by Greece. Nevertheless, the US is the grand champion of debt with unfunded liabilities are $210 trillion five times the EU's unfunded burden of $40 trillion (Dr. Kotlikoff, 2015). When unfunded liabilities are excluded and only debt on the books is examined, the US, UK and many competing nations share similar debt levels as Greece (Figure 1.1.).

Figure 1.1. Debt % of GDP: US & Competing Nations

Note: Graph courtesy of The Spectator.

In addition, the duo discuss media reports that officials in China have accumulated over 10,000 tons of gold in preparation to back the Yuan with the metal, making it the new de facto global reserve currency. Bill Murphy notes that the when the PMs bear market ends, prices will explode higher - the host forecasts that after 2 small hikes in the benchmark rate in September and again in December, the Fed will pause, presenting an excellent opportunity to increase dollar cost averaging efforts.

 

Figure 1.2. China's Gold Reserves - Gold Backed Yuan

Note: Graph courtesy of BullionStar.com.

Moreover, the gold repatriation theme is gaining momentum as countries and even US states demand billions of their gold reserves returned from national / foreign coffers. But could there be more to the story than meets the eye? Might officials be positioning their chess pieces in anticipation of a new global reserve currency? For example, could EU nations such as Austria, Netherlands, Switzerland, et al., be preparing for an inevitable euro currency failure and a return to former sovereign currency? In similar fashion, might Texan officials among others, be anticipating a US Dollar implosion and perhaps conflict among the provinces? At the very least, national dialogue on the topic is advisable.

 

Bob Hoye & Chris Waltzek - July 1, 2015.

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Recap:

Bob Hoye, senior investment strategist at Institutional Advisors, and the host unravel the latest Greek drama.
After months of warning of a Cypriot-like moment in Greece, on Monday morning depositors were locked out of Greek banks. Only ATMs were functional, most of which have low withdrawal limits imposed. ATMs were emptied quickly, as seen in the following video.

The US may face a Grexit via a Puert-xit, as the Puerto Rico province battles creditors over billions of unpayable debts (Figure 1.2).

Several states / municipalities are approaching Detroit-style bankruptcies.

It's advisable for every household to prepare for something similar by increasing PMs exposure as well as stockpiling dried / canned goods / cash, etc.

The trouble seems to stem in part from a misunderstanding regarding debt. Debt is a valuable leverage instrument when times are solid, yet when future prospects sour, the leverage enhancing tool can become an unbeatable burden.

A gold market trend confirmation method involves the gold/CRB ratio ($Gold:$CRB) ratio.
When the ratio is above the trend line, a bull market is present, as gold outperforms the commodities-sector proxy.
Fed governors John Williams and Jerome Powell, expressed their hawkish rate epistemologies.
Instead of "one and done", "two and done, maybe" seems likely, suggestive that the benchmark rate will be hiked for the first time since 2008 in September and the second increase in December.
Analysts at leading investment bank Goldman Sachs reconfirmed earlier comments that the US dollar and euro would trade at parity before 2016, hinting at continued greenback strength.
Bob Hoye and the host share Peter Spina's sentiments that under such a deflationary environment, gold tends to hold its value relative to virtually every other asset price.

Bob Hoye, senior investment strategist at Institutional Advisors, and the host unravel the latest Greek drama - after months of warning of a Cypriot-like moment in Greece, on Monday morning depositors were locked out of Greek banks, only ATMs were functional, most of which have low withdrawal limits imposed. ATMs were emptied quickly, as seen in the following video (Figure 1.1.). The news is not only devastating to savers, but to the EU, which appears to be unraveling in slow motion.

Figure 1.1. Greek Banks Closed - At Least 1 Week

Note: Video courtesy of www.YouTube.com All rights reserved, copyright 2015.

Unfortunately, the US may face a Grexit or Puert-xit, as the Puerto Rico province battles creditors over billions of unpayable debts (Figure 1.2). In addition, several states / municipalities are approaching Detroit-style bankruptcies. Given our guests anecdote from antiquity: "Lithic ex sanguinary" (creditors squeeze blood from rocks) it's advisable for every household to prepare for something similar by increasing PMs exposure as well as stockpiling dried / canned goods / cash, etc. The trouble seems to stem in part from a misunderstanding regarding debt. Debt is a valuable leverage instrument when times are solid, yet when future prospects sour, the leverage enhancing tool can become an unbearable burden.

Figure 1.2. Puert-xit: Puerto Rico Debt Issue

Note: Video courtesy of www.YouTube.com All rights reserved, copyright 2015.

Moreover, an interesting gold market trend confirmation method involves the gold/CRB ratio ($Gold:$CRB) ratio. In general, when the ratio is above the trend line, a bull market is present, as gold outperforms the commodities-sector proxy (Figure 1.3.).

Figure 1.3. Gold/CRB Ratio

Note: Chart provided with permission from Stockcharts.com

In the wake of the recent FOMC meeting, two key Fed governors John Williams and Jerome Powell, expressed their hawkish rate epistemologies. Instead of "one and done", "two and done, maybe" seems likely, suggestive that the benchmark rate will be hiked for the first time since 2008 in September and the second increase in December. The comments sent the US dollar higher last week, which promptly closed at the highest point in three weeks. Analysts at leading investment bank Goldman Sachs reconfirmed earlier comments that the US dollar and euro would trade at parity before 2016, hinting at continued greenback strength. Bob Hoye and the host share Peter Spina's sentiments that under such a deflationary environment, the Deus ex machina (divine intervention) gold tends to hold its value relative to virtually every other asset price.

 

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